Long-Range Precipitation Forecast

by Jason Hess

The current El Nino event that began in the Spring of 1997 and peaked during December of 1997 should be coming to a close during the summer of 1998. Its impact on Alaska is usually less during the summertime months, but looking at historical data shows that El Nino results in drier than normal summers over most of Alaska. The exceptions are along some of the Gulf of Alaska coastal areas, the Alaska Peninsula, and parts of western Alaska. Figure 1 gives the precipitation outlook for the April through August period as percent chance of having above or below average precipitation for the period. The greater the number the better the chance for having drier/wetter conditions this summer. El Nino has been related to above normal fire danger in the Interior of Alaska, possibly due to an abundance of “dry” thunderstorm activity.

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