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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2014 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL... 

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE. 

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND ITS EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL OVER THE 
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE... AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS 
ALONG THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM 
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WAS MEASURED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE 
BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. 

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY DEVELOPS INTO A SINGLE UNIFIED SYSTEM 
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORT 
WAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ENHANCED 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS THE FORECAST 
DILEMMA. THE FIRST ONE TO CONTEND WITH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE 
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT ON IS SCHEDULED FOR 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DEFORMATION SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 
MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE EASTERN 
BROOKS RANGE INTO SATURDAY. 

MUCH BETTER WEATHER WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST THANKS TO A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. 

THE FREEZING LEVEL FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE WERE WELL 
BELOW NORMAL. ELEVATIONS RANGED BETWEEN THE SURFACE AT BARROW AND 
7500 FT AT KODIAK. FREEZING LEVELS BEGIN TO REBOUND FIRST OVER THE 
WEST ON SATURDAY THEN FILTER NORTH INTO THE NORTH SLOPE BY SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS 
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR 
======== ====                 == ==    ===== 
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PP RG :   1.99
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   1.51
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :   1.40
AUKA2    AUKE BAY LARC        PC RP :   1.30
PANC     ANCHORAGE            PP RZ :   1.23
PAFC     ANCHORAGE NWS        PP RZ :   1.03
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PC R2 :   0.80
KSHA2    KANTISHNA            PC RZ :   0.76
CPKA2    POKER CREEK RAWS     PC RG :   0.74
PMKA2    POINT MACKENZIE      PC RM :   0.70
KSHA2    KANTISHNA            PC RM :   0.70
LCRA2    LITTLE CHENA RIDGE S PP RG :   0.69
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PP RG :   0.69
WNLA2    WEIN LAKE RAWS       PP RG :   0.68
WICA2    WICKERSHAM DOME NEAR PP RG :   0.67
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PP RG :   0.65
DKLA2    DUNKLE HILLS         PP RG :   0.63
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.62
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS CEN PP RG :   0.62
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PC R2 :   0.61
MRGA2    MARGUERITE CREEK NEA PP RG :   0.61
LMHA2    LAKE MINCHUMINA      PC RG :   0.60
CHTA2    CHATANIKA RAWS       PC RG :   0.59
HCRA2    HESS CREEK NEAR LIVE PP RG :   0.58
CHTA2    CHATANIKA RAWS       PP RG :   0.58
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RZ :   0.56
NOCA2    NOME CREEK ABOVE OPH PC RG :   0.55
PANN     NENANA               PP RZ :   0.54
NESA2    NENANA SNOTEL        PC RM :   0.54
FNEA2    FAIRBANKS NE CRN     PP RZ :   0.54
JBRA2    JBER                 PP RG :   0.53
NOCA2    NOME CREEK ABOVE OPH PP RG :   0.52
MNCA2    MONUMENT CREEK SNOTE PP RG :   0.51
CRHA2    CHENA RIVER BLW HUNT PC RG :   0.51
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.50

...LONG RANGE... 

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS 
IN THE FALL.
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH

National Weather Service
Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center
6930 Sand Lake Road
Anchorage, Ak 99502
907-266-5160

Page Modified: 29 Dec 2005 18:00 UTC
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