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StormReady Program


SRAK48 PACR 281500 
ACRRVAAK
AKZALL-302200

ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY 
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 
3 PM ADT WED MAY 28 2014

...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA...

FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES: NONE

WEATHER - WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE IS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...A
DROP FROM THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN HAVING OVER THE 
PAST FEW WEEKS. IN ADDITION NORTHERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR DAYS 6-14 INDICATE
COLDER THAN NORMAL OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
GULF COAST.
 
*********************************************************************
*EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY *
*OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO *
*MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP.  PLEASE USE CAUTION AT*
*ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS.                      *
*********************************************************************

RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY:

THE RIVER REMAINS FROZEN AT COLVILLE VILLAGE AND ON THE LOWER KUPARUK
WITH SOME THICKENING OF THE ICE AS TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO BELOW
FREEZING.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WATER FROM UPSTREAM THAT
WOULD BE LIKELY TO BREAK UP THE ICE SO BREAKUP AT THESE LAST HOLDOUT
LOCATIONS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME NEW SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE MOUTHS OF THE NORTH SLOPE 
RIVERS AND OPEN LEADS HAVE REFROZEN.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS
LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING
                         THE MELT SEASON.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR
                  ICE JAMS.

*  AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1980 THROUGH 2013 AND ARE
      CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA.
** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                      SNOWMELT   FLOOD      AVERAGE  NO. OF  FORECAST
RIVER - REACH         RUNOFF     POTENTIAL  BREAKUP  YEARS   BREAKUP
                      VOLUME                DATE *   RECORD  DATE
-------------         ---------- ---------  -------  ------  --------
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE     

KENAI RIVER              

ANCHOR RIVER       BELOW AVERAGE  LOW        04/13     10    04/17**

MATANUSKA RIVER    BELOW AVERAGE             04/30      8    04/18**

SUSITNA RIVER                     LOW                    
  GOLD CREEK                      LOW        05/03      7    UNKNOWN
  SUNSHINE                        LOW        05/01     25    05/02**

YENTNA RIVER       BELOW AVERAGE          
  LAKE CREEK                      LOW        05/01     23    05/01**

SKWENTNA RIVER     BELOW AVERAGE      
  SKWENTNA                        LOW        05/01     19    04/29**

COPPER RIVER BASIN    AVERAGE                     
  GAKONA RVR @ HWY                LOW        05/01     26    04/30** 
  GULKANA RVR @ HWY               LOW        04/30     25    04/25**

CHENA RIVER           AVERAGE             
  CHENA LAKES PROJECT                
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        04/26     22    04/22**  

TANANA RIVER          AVERAGE  
  NORTHWAY                        LOW        04/26     26    04/24**  
  SALCHA                        LOW-MOD                      04/26**
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        04/30     15    04/29**
  NENANA                          LOW        05/01     31    04/25**  
  MANLEY                          LOW        05/04     24    04/29**

KUSKOKWIM RIVER     BELOW AVERAGE      
  NIKOLAI                         LOW        04/24     28    04/21** 
  MCGRATH                         LOW        05/07     34    04/30**  
  STONY RIVER                     LOW        05/06     26    05/02** 
  SLEETMUTE                       LOW        05/05     25    05/01**  
  RED DEVIL                       LOW        05/07     28    05/01**  
  CROOKED CREEK                   LOW        05/07     28    05/02**  
  ANIAK                           LOW        05/08     31    05/01** 
  KALSKAG                         LOW        05/08     25    04/30** 
  TULUKSAK                        LOW        05/10     22    05/04**
  AKIAK                           LOW        05/11     28    05/04**
  KWETHLUK                      LOW-MOD
  BETHEL                          LOW        05/12     33    05/02**
  NAPAKIAK                        LOW        05/14     20    05/03**

YUKON RIVER (UPPER)   AVERAGE      
  DAWSON, YT                                 05/05     34    05/02** 
  EAGLE                         LOW-MOD      05/05     32    05/01** 
  CIRCLE                        LOW-MOD      05/10     30    05/05** 
  FORT YUKON                      LOW        05/11     30    05/07** 
  BEAVER                          LOW        05/11     18    05/07** 
  STEVENS VILLAGE               LOW-MOD      05/12     17    05/07** 
  RAMPART                         LOW        05/12     19    05/07**

YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE)  AVERAGE  
  TANANA                        LOW-MOD      05/10     29    05/03**
  RUBY                            LOW        05/12     28    05/04**
  GALENA                        LOW-MOD      05/13     33    05/05**
  KOYUKUK                       LOW-MOD      05/14      9    05/07**
  NULATO                        LOW-MOD      05/13     18    05/07**
  KALTAG                          LOW        05/14     28    05/07**
  ANVIK                           LOW        05/17     27    05/08**

YUKON RIVER (LOWER)   AVERAGE   
  HOLY CROSS                      LOW        05/16     27    05/02**
  RUSSIAN MISSION                 LOW        05/16     28    05/02**
  MARSHALL                        LOW        05/17     22    05/03**
  PILOT STATION                   LOW        05/18     17    05/03**
  MOUNTAIN VILLAGE                LOW        05/19     27    05/04**
  ALAKANUK/EMMONAK              LOW-MOD      05/23     29    05/10**

KOYUKUK RIVER         AVERAGE  
  BETTLES                         LOW        05/10     31    05/03**
  ALLAKAKET                       LOW        05/11     28    05/04**
  HUGHES                        LOW-MOD      05/11     27    05/05**

SEWARD PENINSULA                   
  BUCKLAND RIVER                 
  BUCKLAND                      LOW-MOD      05/19     24    05/04**

KOBUK RIVER                                       
  KOBUK                         LOW-MOD      05/17     30    05/10**
  SHUNGNAK                        LOW        05/18     24    05/10**
  AMBLER                          LOW        05/19     30    05/10**

NOATAK RIVER        ABOVE AVERAGE 
  NOATAK                          LOW        05/20     19    05/14**

BROOKS RANGE - NORTH  ABOVE AVERAGE
  COLVILLE @ UMIAT                LOW        05/25     15    05/14**
  COLVILLE @ COLVILLE           LOW-MOD      06/01     17  05/29-06/02

FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB SITE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.  

THIS IS THE LAST BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR 2014. THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP 
OUTLOOK WILL BE RELEASED IN MARCH OF 2015...  WITH A DETAILED OUTLOOK
IN EARLY TO MID APRIL. THE BREAKUP SUMMARY WILL BEGIN AGAIN WHEN BREAKUP
ACTIVITY BEGINS IN 2015.

$$
SDL


         

National Weather Service
Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center
6930 Sand Lake Road
Anchorage, Ak 99502
907-266-5160

Page Modified: 29 Dec 2005 18:00 UTC
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