National Weather Service, Alaska - Pacific River Forecast Center National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration National Weather Service Headquarters
Skip Navigation LinksNOAA logo and title bar Scalable transition graphic NWS logo
    
  


StormReady Program


SRAK48 PACR 301525 ACRRVAAK  AKZALL-292200-

ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY 
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 
3 PM ADT APRIL 30 2016

...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA....

FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES:
NONE

ALASKA BREAKUP SUMMARY NOTABLE EVENTS FROM PAST 24 HOURS -
THE ICE WENT OUT ON THE YUKON RIVER AT CIRCLE FRIDAY NIGHT.  

THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW TO LOW-MODERATE 
STATEWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SAG RIVER ON THE NORTH SLOPE WHICH IS 
MODERATE TO HIGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED SNOWPACK AND ICE THICKNESS
REPORTS AND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
CURRENTLY BREAKUP AT MOST LOCATIONS IS EARLIER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
HAVING A RECORD EARLY BREAKUP. 

WEATHER - LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE 
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GEGULKANANERALLY 
ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER FOR DAYS 6-14 INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.

FOR WEATHER... ICE AND SNOW CONDITIONS... PLEASE REFER TO
HTTP://WWW.APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/FCST.PHP?PRODUCT=AGAK78PACR AND FOR VARIOUS SNOW
GRAPH OPTIONS... REFER TO THE APRFC WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV OR
THE NRCS WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.AK.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/DATA/CURRENT.HTML

RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE-

*********************************************************************
*EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY *
*OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO *
*MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP.  PLEASE USE CAUTION AT*
*ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS.                      *
*********************************************************************

SUSITNA RIVER...
THE SUSITNA RIVER IS OPEN FROM NEAR CANTWELL TO THE MOUTH. CHUNK ICE RUNS
ARE LIKELY FROM HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MOUTH.

SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVER..
THE ICE IS OUT ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS. SOME IN PLACE ICE LIKELY
REMAINS IN HEADWATERS ABOVE SKWENTNA. CHUNK ICE RUNS ARE LIKELY ON THE RIVERS.

TANANA RIVER..
THE TANANA RIVER IS OPEN WITH SOME CHUNK ICE RUNS LIKELY NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF 
THE YUKON.

COPPER RIVER... 
THE COPPER RIVER IS MOSTLY OPEN FROM ITS HEADWATER AREA TO CHITINA. SOME IN
PLACE ICE REMAINS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES IN THE CANYON.

KUSKOKWIM...
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER IS OPEN WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT CHUNK ICE RUNS IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN TRIBUTARIES.

YUKON RIVER...
THE YUKON RIVER ICE WENT OUT AT CIRCLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BREAKUP FRONT STALLED
OUT 40 OR 50 MILES UPRIVER OF FORT YUKON. THE ICE IS ROTTEN AT FORT YUKON
WITH LOTS OF OPEN LEADS. THE ICE WENT OUT AT TANANA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TANANA
RIVER IS INITIATING A BREAKUP FRONT ON THE MIDDLE YUKON. SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF
INNOKO RIVER TO PILOT STATION.


THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING
                         THE MELT SEASON.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR
                  ICE JAMS.  THIS IS INITIALLY CALCULATED BASED ON THE FLOOD 
                  FREQUENCY FOR THE 2000 TO 2015 HISTORICAL RECORD AND ADJUSTED
                  TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

*  AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1980 THROUGH 2015 AND ARE
      CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA.
** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                      SNOWMELT   FLOOD      AVERAGE  NO. OF  FORECAST
RIVER - REACH         RUNOFF     POTENTIAL  BREAKUP  YEARS   BREAKUP
                      VOLUME                DATE *    USED    DATE
-------------         ---------- ---------  -------  ------  --------
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE     

KENAI RIVER              

ANCHOR RIVER          AVERAGE    NONE        04/14     11     3/18**

MATANUSKA RIVER       AVERAGE                04/30              
SUSITNA RIVER                     LOW                    
  GOLD CREEK                      LOW        05/03      8     
  SUNSHINE                        LOW        05/03     27     4/16**  

YENTNA RIVER          AVERAGE          
  LAKE CREEK                      LOW        05/01     25     4/14**  

SKWENTNA RIVER        AVERAGE      
  SKWENTNA                        LOW        05/01     21     4/13**   

COPPER RIVER BASIN    BELOW                   
  GAKONA RVR @ HWY                LOW        05/02     29     4/21**  
  GULKANA   @ HWY                 LOW        05/01     28     4/20**  

CHENA RIVER           AVERAGE             
  CHENA LAKES PROJECT                
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        04/26     24     4/22**

TANANA RIVER          BELOW  
  CHISANA @ NORTHWAY              LOW        04/26     26     4/11**  
  SALCHA                          LOW                          
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        05/01     17     4/18**  
  NENANA                          LOW        05/02     36     4/23** 
  MANLEY                          LOW        05/04     26     4/28**  

KUSKOKWIM RIVER       AVERAGE      
  NIKOLAI                         LOW        04/24     30     4/11** 
  MCGRATH                         LOW        05/07     36     4/25**   
  STONY RIVER                     LOW        05/06     28     4/23**  
  SLEETMUTE                       LOW        05/07     27     4/18**   
  RED DEVIL                       LOW        05/06     30     4/19**  
  CROOKED CREEK                   LOW        05/07     30     4/21**   
  ANIAK                           LOW        05/08     33     4/19**   
  KALSKAG                         LOW        05/08     27     4/20**  
  TULUKSAK                        LOW        05/10     24     4/21**  
  AKIAK                           LOW        05/11     30     4/21**   
  KWETHLUK                        LOW   
  BETHEL                          LOW        05/12     35     4/20**  
  NAPAKIAK                        LOW        05/13     21     4/20**   

YUKON RIVER (UPPER)   AVERAGE    
  DAWSON, YT                                 05/05     36     4/23**
  EAGLE                           LOW        05/05     35     4/26**  
  CIRCLE                          LOW        05/10     32     4/29**
  FORT YUKON                      LOW        05/11     32  05/01-05/04 
  BEAVER                          LOW        05/11     20  05/01-05/04  
  STEVENS VILLAGE                 LOW        05/12     19  05/02-05/06 
  RAMPART                         LOW        05/12     21  05/02-05/05   

YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE)  AVERAGE  
  TANANA                          LOW        05/10     31     4/29**
  RUBY                            LOW        05/12     30  05/02-05/07   
  GALENA                        LOW-MOD      05/13     35  05/02-05/08  
  KOYUKUK                       LOW-MOD      05/13     11  05/03-05/09      
  NULATO                        LOW-MOD      05/13     20  05/03-05/09  
  KALTAG                          LOW        05/14     30  05/04-05/10   
  ANVIK                           LOW        05/17     29  05/05-05/11 
  
YUKON RIVER (LOWER)   AVERAGE 
  HOLY CROSS                      LOW        05/16     29  05/03-05/09   
  RUSSIAN MISSION                 LOW        05/16     30  05/03-05/09 
  MARSHALL                        LOW        05/16     24  05/03-05/09  
  PILOT STATION                   LOW        05/17     19  05/05-05/11 
  MOUNTAIN VILLAGE                LOW        05/18     29  05/06-05/12   
  ALAKANUK/EMMONAK              LOW-MOD      05/22     31  05/10-05/16   

KOYUKUK RIVER         BELOW  
  BETTLES                         LOW        05/10     34  05/04-05/10   
  ALLAKAKET                       LOW        05/10     30  05/07-05/13   
  HUGHES                          LOW        05/11     29  05/07-05/13   

SEWARD PENINSULA                   
  BUCKLAND                      LOW-MOD      05/18     26  05/04-05/10  

KOBUK RIVER                                       
  KOBUK                         LOW-MOD      05/16     32  05/05-05/11  
  SHUNGNAK                        LOW        05/18     26  05/07-05/13   
  AMBLER                          LOW        05/19     32  05/07-05/13   

NOATAK RIVER          AVERAGE 
  NOATAK                          LOW        05/20     21  05/09-05/15   

BROOKS RANGE - NORTH  AVERAGE
  COLVILLE @ UMIAT                LOW        05/23     17  05/12-05/25   
  COLVILLE @ COLVILLE           LOW-MOD      06/01     19  05/21-05/27

SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER
  DALTON HWY                   MOD-HIGH      


FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB 
SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.  

THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY
May 01  2016.

$$
DPS


         

National Weather Service
Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center
6930 Sand Lake Road
Anchorage, Ak 99502
907-266-5160

About Us
Career Opportunities
Glossary
Credits
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy